Publication details
Democratization and Conflict Escalation in the Post-Communist Countries
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| Year of publication | 2015 |
| Type | Conference abstract |
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| Description | In the past twenty years, the post-communist area has undergone major political developments. Some regime changes were relatively peaceful (Czechoslovakia, Poland, Hungary and to some degree Baltic states and Bulgaria) and some escalated into violence (Russia with two Chechnya wars, Yugoslavia and South Caucasus countries). Deep divisions exist in the region in countries such as Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Bosnia, Serbia, and Macedonia, and armed conflicts can erupt again. This has once again brought to the forefront the nexus between democratization and conflict. To understand fully the causes, dynamics, and likely trajectory of such processes, it is necessary to analyse how and when mass popular uprisings result in democratization, and when they escalate into conflict. We argue that ethnic diversity is not sufficient condition to explain escalation of armed conflicts. This paper analyses the conditions under which non-violent political conflicts are transformed into armed conflicts in the post-communist countries. Process tracing and QCA techniques are used to identify linkages between democratization and modes of conflict escalation. The findings of this research have clear theoretical implications, as well as practical policy recommendations – an agenda core to many institutions of the international community (for example, the UN, NATO, and OSCE). |