Publication details
Formalized Scenario Building Apadpation for Conflict Prevention
| Authors | |
|---|---|
| Year of publication | 2020 |
| Type | Article in Proceedings |
| Conference | PROCEEDINGS THE 16TH INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE “STRATEGIES XXI” : STRATEGIC CHANGES IN SECURITY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, Volume 16, Part 2 |
| MU Faculty or unit | |
| Citation | |
| web | https://www.strategii21.ro/A/2020-04.%20STRATEGIC%20CHANGES%20IN%20SECURITY%20AND%20INTERNATIONAL%20RELATIONS/FSA_2020_VOLUMUL%202.pdf |
| Keywords | conflict prevention; scenario-building; trend impact analysis |
| Attached files | |
| Description | Scenario-building methods are broadly employed to assist prediction and planning across a broad field of applications. Security environment analysis and conflict prevention planning has predominantly relied on long-term trend assessments by experts and infrequently on basic scenario building. The mode of scenario building was characterized by high-volume or extreme case methodology. The high number of possible scenarios and assignment of probabilities present key disadvantages. The paper proposes an adaptation of Trend Impact Analysis (TIA) methodology to security environment analysis and conflict prevention by illustrating this application on a dataset of 12 monitored trend factors specifically tested on a set of 316 cases. The application shows that TIA combines the advantages of quantitative and scenario-building methods to systematically reduce the number of probable scenarios and increase the precision of predictions necessary for effective analysis and conflict prevention. This application is highly relevant to both state and international medium and long-term conflict prevention and threat mitigation strategies |
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