Publication details
Scenáre v predikcii a prevencii konfliktov : adaptácia trendovej dopadovej analýzy
| Title in English | Scenarions in conflict prediction and prevention : Trend impact analysis adaptation |
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| Authors | |
| Year of publication | 2020 |
| Type | Article in Proceedings |
| Conference | Národná a medzinárodná bezpečnosť 2020 : zbornik prispevkov z 11 medzinárodnej vedeckej konferencie |
| MU Faculty or unit | |
| Citation | |
| web | sborník |
| Keywords | conflict prediction; scenario building; trend impact analysis; QCA |
| Attached files | |
| Description | Scenario-building methods are widely employed to assist prediction and planning across a broad field of applications. However, conflict prediction and prevention planning has predominantly relied on extrapolation techniques and long-term trend assessments by experts because of key disadvantages of scenarios - high number of possible results and assignment of probabilities. To address those, numerous techniques for scenarios reduction have been designed. The paper proposes an adaptation of one of them - Trend Impact Analysis (TIA). Proposed adaptation combines qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) and TIA to achieve systematic reduction of relevant scenarios by assigning probabilities and impact to individual scenarios. The application is illustrated on a set of 316 cases in 68 countries. The results show that combination of methods reduces the number of probable scenarios and increases the precision of predictions necessary for effective analysis and conflict prevention. |
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