Publication details
Electoral Volatility Types and Democratic Recovery: A Comparative Study on the Ousting of Autocratizing Incumbents in the 21st Century
| Authors | |
|---|---|
| Year of publication | 2023 |
| Type | Appeared in Conference without Proceedings |
| MU Faculty or unit | |
| Citation | |
| Attached files | |
| Description | Inspired by Kim et al.'s (2022) recent study on electoral volatility and competitive authoritarian regimes’ breakdown, this study investigates the potential of electoral volatility to be associated with the halting of autocratization and the recovery of democracy in the 21st century. It has been first constructed a sample of 18 countries from Europe, Latin America, and Asia, comprising 7, 4, and 7 cases respectively. About 40 competitive elections held in these countries between 2000 and 2023, under autocratizing incumbents, are then analyzed through Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA). By considering the presence of other factors ( Incumbent’s years in power, Government Type, Regime-type, and more) the aim is to identify if, and under which conditions electoral volatility is more likely to be correlated with the ousting of an illiberal incumbent. Furthermore, electoral volatility has been disaggregated into its two components, Type-A and Type-B, to assess whether there is a correlation between the entry of new actors into parliament and the ousting of the autocratizing actor, as compared to a shift in power among established opposition parties. If significant patterns are found, this study would demonstrate that electoral volatility can be a useful predictor of all major stages of democracy's life. Indeed, this study suggests that Type-A volatility levels above the regional average are correlated with incumbent removal and re-democratization. This relation is strengthened when Type-A volatility happens in conjunction with a loss of seats by the incumbent party. However, neither Type-A nor Type-B volatilities are necessary or sufficient conditions for democratic recovery. |