Publication details
Strained Relations in the High North : Steps-to-War Analysis of Conflict Potential in the Arctic
| Authors | |
|---|---|
| Year of publication | 2024 |
| Type | Article in Periodical |
| Magazine / Source | Europe-Asia Studies |
| MU Faculty or unit | |
| Citation | |
| web | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09668136.2023.2292471#abstract |
| Doi | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2023.2292471 |
| Keywords | The Arctic; International Law; Territorial Claims; The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea; Svalbard Treaty; Militarization; NATO; Russia; Steps-to-War Analysis of Conflict Potential; |
| Description | Following the 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia, tensions have heightened in the international relations and security environment, including the Arctic region. We are witnessing renewed geopolitical rivalry and military tensions between the Arctic states. In this article, a steps-to-war model of conflict escalation is used to calculate whether the conflict potential in the Arctic is rising. While our results confirm an increase in confrontational behaviour according to militarisation and coalition-building markers, the rivalry marker shows a rise in cooperative behaviour. Hence, in our model, the preconditions signalling an increased likelihood of international armed conflict are not fulfilled. |