Publication details
A Novel Approach to Analyzing Seasonal Patterns in Epidemics Using a Higher-Dimensional State Space
| Authors | |
|---|---|
| Year of publication | 2023 |
| Type | Appeared in Conference without Proceedings |
| MU Faculty or unit | |
| Citation | |
| Description | We demonstrate the advantages of this approach and its potential applications in both theoretical biology and practical problems related to respiratory epidemics, including the Covid-19 pandemic. We demonstrate how to address important epidemiological questions using our approach. These questions can include determining the feasibility of eradicating an endemic disease, assessing the possibility of a transition from massive COVID-19 outbreaks in a naive population to a seasonally synchronized respiratory disease, and exploring other important issues related to the control and prevention of infectious diseases. As an model example we use a SEIRS-type model with transmissibility rates ß1, 2, partial immunization with waning rate w, standard parameters ?, ? (1/? average incubation duration, 1/? average infectious period), and q, ? denoting the rate of getting partial immunity due to vaccination or infection. But any other model can be taken. |
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