Publication details
Alternativní odhady NAIRU české ekonomiky a jejich implikace pro ekonomický růst
| Title in English | Alternative estimates of NAIRU for the Czech economy and their implications for economic growth |
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| Authors | |
| Year of publication | 2007 |
| Type | Article in Periodical |
| Magazine / Source | Národohospodářský obzor |
| MU Faculty or unit | |
| Citation | |
| Field | Economy |
| Keywords | NAIRU; potential output; economic growth; bayesian inference; filtration |
| Description | This contribution deals with alternative estimates of non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) for the Czech economy. NAIRU is meant to be an equivalent for the equilibrium unemployment. Simple hysteretic model of the Phillips curve and multi-equation dynamic macroeconomic model are presented. Parameters of these models and paths of the NAIRU are estimated using techniques of the bayesian inference (Gibbs sampler, Metropolis-Hastings algorithm) and filtration (Kalman filter). Trajectory of potential output is estimated in the case of the multi-equation model. Potential output and NAIRU are treated as unobservable states of economic system. Final part of this contribution address to implications for the potential of the Czech Republic concerning sustainable economic growth. |
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