Informace o publikaci
Extreme precipitation totals under present and future climatic conditions according to regional climate models
| Autoři | |
|---|---|
| Rok publikování | 2017 |
| Druh | Kapitola v knize |
| Fakulta / Pracoviště MU | |
| Citace | |
| Přiložené soubory | |
| Popis | It is very likely that the intensity of precipitation over land in the middle latitudes is going to increase by 2100.This chapter deals with the comparison between measured (1981–2010) and simulated (2010–2100) three-day precipitation totals across the area of the Czech Republic. The future precipitation totals were calculated on the basis of five regional climate models (CNRM_ALADIN, EC-EARTH, EC-EARTH_RACMO, MOHC_HADGEM a MPI-ESM-LR) for various recurrence intervals (N=5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years) and emission scenarios (4.5 and 8.5). The outputs of models were compared for three defined periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2081–2100) with emphasis on summer (JJA) and annual precipitation. The regional climate models predict in most cases a marked increase in precipitation totals for a determined recurrence interval which is dependent upon an applied emission scenario and analysed period. However, spatial variability maintains similar patterns to those being formed at the present time. The totals of the acquired three-day precipitation model should serve as the basis for the constitution of the next adaptive strategy of the Czech Republic to 2100. |