Global change in hepatitis C virus prevalence and cascade of care between 2015 and 2020: a modelling study
| Název česky | Globální změna v prevalenci HCV a kaskáda péče mezi roky 2015 a 2020: modelová studie |
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| Autoři |
BLACH Sarah HUSA Petr TERRAULT Norah A TACKE Frank GAMKRELIDZE Ivane CRAXI Antonio TANAKA Junko WAKED Imam DORE Gregory J ABBAS Zaigham ABDALLAH Ayat R ABDULLA Maheeba AGHEMO Alessio AHO Inka AKARCA Ulus S ALALWAN Abduljaleel M BLOME Marianne Alanko AL-BUSAFI Said A ALEMAN Soo ALGHAMDI Abdullah S AL-HAMOUDI Waleed K ALJUMAH Abdulrahman A AL-NAAMANI Khalid AL SERKAL Yousif M ALTRAIF Ibrahim H ANAND Anil C ANDERSON Motswedi ANDERSSON Monique I ATHANASAKIS Kostas BAATARKHUU Oidov BAKIEVA Shokhista R BEN-ARI Ziv BESSONE Fernando BIONDI Mia J BIZRI Abdul Rahman N MELLO Carlos E Brandaoo BRIGIDA Krestina BROWN Kimberly A BROWN Robert S Jr BRUGGMANN Philip BRUNETTO Maurizia R BUSSCHOTS Dana BUTI Maria BUTSASHVILI Maia CABEZAS Joaquin CHAE Chungman IVANOVA Viktorija Chaloska CHAN Henry Lik Yuen CHEINQUER Hugo CHENG Kent Jason CHEON Myeong Eun CHIEN Cheng Hung CHIEN Rong Nan CHOUDHURI Gourdas CHRISTENSEN Peer Brehm CHUANG Wan Long CHULANOV Vladimir CISNEROS Laura E COCO Barbara CONTRERAS Fernando A CORNBERG Markus CRAMP Matthew E CRESPO Javier CUI Fuqiang CUNNINGHAM Chris W ABOU Lucy Dagher DALGARD Olav DAO Doan Y VICTOR De Ledinghen DERBALA Moutaz F DEUBA Keshab DHINDSA Karan DJAUZI Samsuridjal DRAZILOVA Sylvia DUBERG Ann Sofi ELBADRI Mohammed EL-SAYED Manal H ESMAT Gamal ESTES Chris EZZAT Sameera FARKKILA Martti A FERRADINI Laurent FERRAZ Maria Lucia G FERREIRA Paulo R Abrao KANIZAJ Tajana Filipec FLISIAK Robert FRANKOVA Sona FUNG James GAMKRELIDZE Amiran GANE Edward J GARCIA Virginia GARCIA-SAMANIEGO Javier GEMILYAN Manik GENOV Jordan GHEORGHE Liliana S GHOLAM Pierre M NULL Adrian Goldis GOTTFREDSSON Magnus GRAY Richard T GREBELY Jason GSCHWANTLER Michael HAJARIZADEH Behzad HAMID Saeed S HAMOUDI Waseem HATZAKIS Angelos HELLARD Margaret E HIMATT Sayed HOFER Harald HRSTIC Irena HUNYADY Bela HUSA Petr HUSIC-SELIMOVIC Azra JAFRI Wasim S M JANICKO Martin JANJUA Naveed Z JARCUSKA Peter JAROSZEWICZ Jerzy JERKEMAN Anna JERUMA Agita JIA Jidong JONASSON Jon G KABERG Martin KAITA Kelly D E NULL Kulpash S Kaliaskarova KAO Jia Horng KASYMOV Omor T HANKU Angela Kelly KHAMIS Faryal KHAMIS Jawad KHAN Aamir G KHANDU Lekey KHOUDRI Ibtissam KIELLAND Knut B KIM Do Young KODJOH Nicolas KONDILI Loreta A KRAJDEN Mel KRARUP Henrik Bygum KRISTIAN Pavol KWON Jisoo A LAGGING Martin LALEMAN Wim LAO Wai Cheung LAVANCHY Daniel LAZARO Pablo LAZARUS Jeffrey V LEE Alice U LEE Mei Hsuan LI Michael K K LIAKINA Valentina LIM Young Suk LOVE Arthur LUKSIC Boris MACHEKERA Shepherd Mufudzi MALU Abraham O MARINHO Rui T MATICIC Mojca MEKONNEN Hailemichael D MENDES-CORREA Maria Cassia MENDEZ-SANCHEZ Nahum MERAT Shahin MESHESHA Berhane Redae MIDGARD Havard MILLS Mike MOHAMED Rosmawati MOONEYHAN Ellen MORENO Christophe MULJONO David H MULLHAUPT Beat MUSABAEV Erkin MUYLDERMANS Gaetan NARTEY Yvonne Ayerki NAVEIRA Marcelo C M NEGRO Francesco NERSESOV Alexander V NJOUOM Richard NTAGIRABIRI Renovat NURMATOV Zuridin S OBEKPA Solomon A OGUCHE Stephen OLAFSSON Sigurdur ONG Janus P OPARE-SEM Ohene K ORREGO Mauricio OVREHUS Anne L PAN Calvin Q PAPATHEODORIDIS George V PECK-RADOSAVLJEVIC Markus PESSOA Mario G PHILLIPS Richard O PIMENOV Nikolay PLASESKA-KARANFILSKA Dijana PRABDIAL-SING Nishi N PURI Pankaj NULL Huma Qureshi RAHMAN Aninda RAMJI Alnoor RAZAVI-SHEARER Devin M RAZAVI-SHEARER Kathryn RIDRUEJO Ezequiel RIOS-HINCAPIE Cielo Y RIZVI S M Shahriar ROBAEYS Geert K M M ROBERTS Lewis R ROBERTS Stuart K RYDER Stephen D SADIROVA Shakhlo SAEED Umar SAFADI Rifaat SAGALOVA Olga SAID Sanaa S SALUPERE Riina SANAI Faisal M SANCHEZ-AVILA Juan F SARASWAT Vivek A SARRAZIN Christoph SARYBAYEVA Gulya SEGUIN-DEVAUX Carole SHARARA Ala I SHEIKH Mahdi SHEWAYE Abate B SIEVERT William SIMOJOKI Kaarlo SIMONOVA Marieta Y SONDERUP Mark W SPEARMAN C Wendy SPERL Jan STAUBER Rudolf E STEDMAN Catherine A M SU Tung Hung SULEIMAN Anita SYPSA Vana ANTABAK Natalia Tamayo TAN Soek Siam TERGAST Tammo L THURAIRAJAH Prem H TOLMANE Ieva TOMASIEWICZ Krzysztof TSERETELI Maia UZOCHUKWU Benjamin S C VAN DE VIJVER David A M C VAN SANTEN Daniela K HANS Van Vlierberghe BEREND Van Welzen VANWOLLEGHEM Thomas VELEZ-MOLLER Patricia VILLAMIL Federico Guillermo VINCE Adriana WAHEED Yasir WEIS Nina WONG Vincent W S YAGHI Cesar G YESMEMBETOV Kakharman YOSRY Ayman YUEN Man Fung YUNIHASTUTI Evy ZEUZEM Stefan ZUCKERMAN Eli RAZAVI Homie A |
| Rok publikování | 2022 |
| Druh | Článek v odborném periodiku |
| Časopis / Zdroj | LANCET GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY |
| Fakulta / Pracoviště MU | |
| Citace | |
| www | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langas/article/PIIS2468-1253%2821%2900472-6/fulltext |
| Doi | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2468-1253(21)00472-6 |
| Klíčová slova | hepatitis C virus prevalence |
| Přiložené soubory | |
| Popis | Summary Background Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends. Methods This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age ?0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade of care from 1950 to 2050 for countries and territories with data. Model outcomes were extracted from 2015 to 2030 to calculate population-weighted regional averages, which were used for countries or territories without data. Regional and global estimates of HCV prevalence, cascade of care, and disease burden were calculated based on 235 countries and territories. Findings Models were built for 110 countries or territories: 83 were approved by local experts and 27 were based on published data alone. Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), we estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0·7% (95% UI 0·7–0·9), corresponding to 56·8 million (95% UI 55·2–67·8) infections, on Jan 1, 2020. This number represents a decrease of 6·8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of year) prevalence estimate of 63·6 million (61·8–75·8) infections (0·9% [0·8–1·0] prevalence). By the end of 2020, an estimated 12·9 million (12·5–15·4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641 000 (623 000–765 000) patients initiated treatment. Interpretation At the beginning of 2020, there were an estimated 56·8 million viraemic HCV infections globally. Although this number represents a decrease from 2015, our forecasts suggest we are not currently on track to achieve global elimination targets by 2030. As countries recover from COVID-19, these findings can help refocus efforts aimed at HCV elimination. |