Publication details
Využitie širokej palety údajov z rôznych zdrojov na odhad reálnej súkromnej spotreby
| Title in English | Forecasting real private consumption on the basis of a wide range of indicators |
|---|---|
| Authors | |
| Year of publication | 2014 |
| Type | Article in Periodical |
| Magazine / Source | BIATEC |
| MU Faculty or unit | |
| Citation | |
| Web | text článku |
| Field | Economy |
| Keywords | real private consumption, nowcast, monthly indicators, Chow-Lin interpolation |
| Description | Further to our previous contribution on the electronic indicators' potential to forecast nominal private consumption (Biatec No. 6/2014 “Electronic indicators of consumer demand”), we now revisit this topic focusing on the short-term forecasting of real private consumption. Our intention is to build short-term forecasting and nowcasting models for real private consumption, i.e. consumption of households (consumers and small entrepreneurs) and non-profit organizations serving households (trade unions, charities, professional associations, consumer associations, political parties, religious organizations). The article briefly describes our approach to the short-term forecasting and nowcasting, which is based on the linear regression of monthly indicators. As data on real consumption are measured and published quarterly, while their explaining variables have monthly frequency, the possibilities of econometric modelling with mixed-frequency data are also discussed. |