Recent human-induced atmospheric drying across Europe unprecedented in the last 400 years

• Authors: TREYDTE Kerstin; LIU Laibao; PADRON Ryan S.; MARTINEZ-SANCHO Elisabet; BABST Flurin; FRANK David C.; GESSLER Arthur; KAHMEN Ansgar; POULTER Benjamin; SENEVIRATNE Sonia I.; STEGEHUIS Annemiek I.; WILSON Rob; ANDREU-HAYLES Laia; BALE Roderick; BEDNARZ Zdzislaw; BOETTGER Tatjana; BERNINGER Frank; BÜNTGEN Ulf; DAUX Valerie; DORADO-LINAN Isabel; ESPER Jan; FRIEDRICH Michael; GAGEN Mary; GRABNER Michael; GRUDD Hakan; GUNNARSSON Bjoern E; GUTIERREZ Emilia; HAFNER Polona; HAUPT Marika; HILASVUORI Emmi; HEINRICH Ingo; HELLE Gerhard; JALKANEN Risto; JUNGNER Hoegne; KALELA-BRUNDIN Maarit; KESSLER Andreas; KIRCHHEFER Andreas; KLESSE Stephan; KRAPIEC Marek; LEVANIC Tom; LEUENBERGER Markus; LINDERHOLM Hans W; MCCARROLL Danny; MASSON-DELMOTTE Valerie; PAWELCZYK Slawomira; PAZDUR Anna; PLANELLS Octavi; PUKIENE Rutile; RINNE-GARMSTON Katja T; ROBERTSON Iain; SARACINO Antonio; SAURER Matthias; SCHLESER Gerhard H; SEFTIGEN Kristina; SIEGWOLF Rolf T W; SONNINEN Eloni; STIEVENARD Michel; SZYCHOWSKA-KRAPIEC Elzbieta; SZYMASZEK Malgorzata; TODARO Luigi; WATERHOUSE John S; WEIGL-KUSKA Martin; WEIGT Rosemarie B; WIMMER Rupert; WOODLEY Ewan J; VITAS Adomas; YOUNG Giles; LOADER Neil J
• Year of publication: 2024
• Type: Article in Periodical
• Magazine / Source: Nature Geoscience
• MU Faculty or unit: Faculty of Science
• Citation: TREYDTE, Kerstin, Laibao LIU, Ryan S. PADRON, Elisabet MARTINEZ-SANCHO, Flurin BABST, David C. FRANK, Arthur GESSLER, Ansgar KAHMEN, Benjamin POULTER, Sonia I. SENEVIRATNE, Annemiek I. STEGEHUIS, Rob WILSON, Laia ANDREU-HAYLES, Roderick BALE, Zdzislaw BEDNARZ, Tatjana BOETTGER, Frank BERNINGER, Ulf BÜNTGEN, Valerie DAUX, Isabel DORADO-LINAN, Jan ESPER, Michael FRIEDRICH, Mary GAGEN, Michael GRABNER, Hakan GRUDD, Bjoern E GUNNARSSON, Emilia GUTIERREZ, Polona HAFNER, Marika HAUPT, Emmi HILASVUORI, Ingo HEINRICH, Gerhard HELLE, Risto JALKANEN, Hoegne JUNGNER, Maarit KALELA-BRUNDIN, Andreas KESSLER, Andreas KIRCHHEFER, Stephan KLESSE, Marek KRAPIEC, Tom LEVANIC, Markus LEUENBERGER, Hans W LINDERHOLM, Danny MCCARROLL, Valerie MASSON-DELMOTTE, Slawomira PAWELCZYK, Anna PAZDUR, Octavi PLANELLS, Rutile PUKIENE, Katja T RINNE-GARMSTON, Iain ROBERTSON, Antonio SARACINO, Matthias SAURER, Gerhard H SCHLESER, Kristina SEFTIGEN, Rolf T W SIEGWOLF, Eloni SONNINEN, Michel STIEVENARD, Elzbieta SZYCHOWSKA-KRAPIEC, Malgorzata SZYMASZEK, Luigi TODARO, John S WATERHOUSE, Martin WEIGL-KUSKA, Rosemarie B WEIGT, Rupert WIMMER, Ewan J WOODLEY, Adomas VITAS, Giles YOUNG and Neil J LOADER. Recent human-induced atmospheric drying across Europe unprecedented in the last 400 years. Nature Geoscience. Nature Portfolio, 2024, vol. 17, No 1, p. 58-65, 18 pp. ISSN 1752-0894. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01335-8.
• web: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01335-8
• Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01335-8
• Keywords: Attribution; Climate and Earth system modelling; Forest ecology; Palaeoclimate; Stable isotope analysis
• Description: The vapor pressure deficit reflects the difference between how much moisture the atmosphere could and actually does hold, a factor that fundamentally affects evapotranspiration, ecosystem functioning, and vegetation carbon uptake. Its spatial variability and long-term trends under natural versus human-influenced climate are poorly known despite being essential for predicting future effects on natural ecosystems and human societies such as crop yield, wildfires, and health. Here we combine regionally distinct reconstructions of pre-industrial summer vapor pressure deficit variability from Europe's largest oxygen-isotope network of tree-ring cellulose with observational records and Earth system model simulations with and without human forcing included. We demonstrate that an intensification of atmospheric drying during the recent decades across different European target regions is unprecedented in a pre-industrial context and that it is attributed to human influence with more than 98% probability. The magnitude of this trend is largest in Western and Central Europe, the Alps and Pyrenees region, and the smallest in southern Fennoscandia. In view of the extreme drought and compound events of the recent years, further atmospheric drying poses an enhanced risk to vegetation, specifically in the densely populated areas of the European temperate lowlands.