Publication details

Global, regional, and national burden of low back pain, 1990-2020, its attributable risk factors, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Authors	FERREIRA Manuela L KATIE de Luca HAILE Lydia M STEINMETZ Jaimie CULBRETH Garland CROSS Marita KOPEC Jacek A FERREIRA Paulo H BLYTH Fiona M BUCHBINDER Rachelle HARTVIGSEN Jan WU Ai-Min SAFIRI Saeid WOOLF Anthony COLLINS Gary S ONG Kanyin Liane VOLLSET Stein Emil SMITH Amanda E CRUZ Jessica A FUKUTAKI Kai Glenn ABATE Semagn Mekonnen ABBASIFARD Mitra ABBASI-KANGEVARI Mohsen ABBASI-KANGEVARI Zeinab ABDELALIM Ahmed ABEDI Aidin ABIDI Hassan ADNANI Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah AHMADI Ali AKINYEMI Rufus Olusola ALAMER Abayneh Tadesse ALEM Adugnaw Zeleke ALIMOHAMADI Yousef ALSHEHRI Mansour Abdullah ALSHEHRI Mohammed Mansour ALZAHRANI Hosam AMINI Saeed AMIRI Sohrab AMU Hubert ANDREI Catalina Liliana ANDREI Tudorel ANTONY Benny ARABLOO Jalal ARULAPPAN Judie ARUMUGAM Ashokan ASHRAF Tahira ATHARI Seyyed Shamsadin AWOKE Nefsu AZADNAJAFABAD Sina BAERNIGHAUSEN Till Winfried BARRERO Lope H BARROW Amadou BARZEGAR Akbar BEARNE Lindsay M BENSENOR Isabela M BERHIE Alemshet Yirga BHANDARI Bharti Bhandari BHOJARAJA Vijayalakshmi S BIJANI Ali BODICHA Belay Boda Abule BOLLA Srinivasa Rao BRAZO-SAYAVERA Javier BRIGGS Andrew M CAO Chao CHARALAMPOUS Periklis CHATTU Vijay Kumar CICUTTINI Flavia M CLARSEN Benjamin CUSCHIERI Sarah DADRAS Omid DAI Xiaochen DANDONA Lalit DANDONA Rakhi DEHGHAN Azizallah DEMIE Takele Gezahegn G DENOVA-GUTIERREZ Edgar DEWAN Syed Masudur Rahman DHARMARATNE Samath Dhamminda DHIMAL Mandira Lamichhane DHIMAL Meghnath DIAZ Daniel DIDEHDAR Mojtaba DIGESA Lankamo Ena DIRESS Mengistie DO Hoa Thi DOAN Linh Phuong EKHOLUENETALE Michael ELHADI Muhammed ESKANDARIEH Sharareh FAGHANI Shahriar FARES Jawad FATEHIZADEH Ali FETENSA Getahun FILIP Irina FISCHER Florian FRANKLIN Richard Charles GANESAN Balasankar GEMEDA Belete Negese Belete GETACHEW Motuma Erena GHASHGHAEE Ahmad GILL Tiffany K GOLECHHA Mahaveer GOLEIJ Pouya GUPTA Bhawna HAFEZI-NEJAD Nima HAJ-MIRZAIAN Arvin HAMAL Pawan Kumar HANIF Asif HARLIANTO Netanja I HASANI Hamidreza HAY Simon I HEBERT Jeffrey J HEIDARI Golnaz HEIDARI Mohammad HEIDARI-SOURESHJANI Reza HLONGWA Mbuzeleni Mbuzeleni HOSSEINI Mohammad-Salar HSIAO Alexander Kevin IAVICOLI Ivo IBITOYE Segun Emmanuel ILIC Irena M ILIC Milena ISLAM Sheikh Mohammed Shariful JANODIA Manthan Dilipkumar JHA Ravi Prakash JINDAL Har Ashish JONAS Jost B KABITO Gebisa Guyasa KANDEL Himal KAUR Rimple Jeet KESHRI Vikash Ranjan KHADER Yousef Saleh KHAN Ejaz Ahmad KHAN Md Jobair MOIEN AB Khan KASHANI Hamid Reza Khayat KHUBCHANDANI Jagdish KIM Yun Jin KISA Adnan KLUGAROVÁ Jitka KOLAHI Ali-Asghar KOOHESTANI Hamid Reza KOYANAGI Ai KUMAR G Anil KUMAR Narinder LALLUKKA Tea LASRADO Savita LEE Wei-Chen LEE Yo Han MAHMOODPOOR Ata MALAGON-ROJAS Jeadran N MALEKPOUR Mohammad-Reza MALEKZADEH Reza MALIH Narges MEHNDIRATTA Man Mohan NASAB Entezar Mehrabi MENEZES Ritesh G MENTIS Alexios-Fotios A MESREGAH Mohamed Kamal MILLER Ted R MIRZA-AGHAZADEH-ATTARI Mohammad MOBARAKABADI Maryam MOHAMMAD Yousef MOHAMMADI Esmaeil MOHAMMED Shafiu MOKDAD Ali H MOMTAZMANESH Sara MONASTA Lorenzo MONI Mohammad Ali MOSTAFAVI Ebrahim MURRAY Christopher J L NAIR Tapas Sadasivan NAZARI Javad NEJADGHADERI Seyed Aria NEUPANE Subas KANDEL Sandhya Neupane NGUYEN Cuong Tat NOWROOZI Ali OKATI-ALIABAD Hassan OMER Emad OULHAJ Abderrahim OWOLABI Mayowa PANDA-JONAS Songhomitra PANDEY Anamika PARK Eun-Kee PAWAR Shrikant PEDERSINI Paolo PEREIRA Jeevan PERES Mario F P PETCU Ionela-Roxana POURAHMADI Mohammadreza RADFAR Amir RAHIMI-DEHGOLAN Shahram RAHIMI-MOVAGHAR Vafa RAHMAN Mosiur RAHMANI Amir Masoud RAJAI Nazanin RAO Chythra R RASHEDI Vahid RASHIDI Mohammad-Mahdi RATAN Zubair Ahmed RAWAF David Laith RAWAF Salman RENZAHO Andre M N REZAEI Negar REZAEI Zahed ROEVER Leonardo RUELA Guilherme de Andrade SADDIK Basema SAHEBKAR Amirhossein SALEHI Sana SANMARCHI Francesco SEPANLOU Sadaf G SHAHABI Saeed SHAHROKHI Shayan SHAKER Elaheh SHAMSI Mohammadbagher SHANNAWAZ Mohammed SHARMA Saurab SHAYGAN Maryam SHEIKHI Rahim Ali SHETTY Jeevan K SHIRI Rahman SHIVALLI Siddharudha SHOBEIRI Parnian SIBHAT Migbar Mekonnen SINGH Ambrish SINGH Jasvinder A SLATER Helen SOLMI Marco SOMAYAJI Ranjani TAN Ker-Kan THAPAR Rekha TOHIDAST Seyed Abolfazl TAHBAZ Sahel Valadan VALIZADEH Rohollah VASANKARI Tommi Juhani VENKETASUBRAMANIAN Narayanaswamy VLASSOV Vasily BAY Vo WANG Yuan-Pang WIANGKHAM Taweewat YADAV Lalit YADOLLAHPOUR Ali JABBARI Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh YANG Lin YAZDANPANAH Fereshteh YONEMOTO Naohiro YOUNIS Mustafa Z ZARE Iman ZARRINTAN Armin ZOLADL Mohammad VOS Theo MARCH Lyn M
Year of publication	2023
Type	Article in Periodical
Magazine / Source	LANCET RHEUMATOLOGY
MU Faculty or unit	Faculty of Medicine
Citation
Web	https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266599132300098X?via%3Dihub
Doi	http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2665-9913(23)00098-X
Keywords	low back pain
Description	Background Low back pain is highly prevalent and the main cause of years lived with disability (YLDs). We present the most up-to-date global, regional, and national data on prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. Methods Population-based studies from 1980 to 2019 identified in a systematic review, international surveys, US medical claims data, and dataset contributions by collaborators were used to estimate the prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from 1990 to 2020, for 204 countries and territories. Low back pain was defined as pain between the 12th ribs and the gluteal folds that lasted a day or more; input data using alternative definitions were adjusted in a network meta-regression analysis. Nested Bayesian meta-regression models were used to estimate prevalence and YLDs by age, sex, year, and location. Prevalence was projected to 2050 by running a regression on prevalence rates using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying them by projected population estimates. Findings In 2020, low back pain affected 619 million (95% uncertainty interval 554-694) people globally, with a projection of 843 million (759-933) prevalent cases by 2050. In 2020, the global age-standardised rate of YLDs was 832 per 100 000 (578-1070). Between 1990 and 2020, age-standardised rates of prevalence and YLDs decreased by 10 center dot 4% (10 center dot 9-10 center dot 0) and 10 center dot 5% (11 center dot 1-10 center dot 0), respectively. A total of 38 center dot 8% (28 center dot 7-47 center dot 0) of YLDs were attributed to occupational factors, smoking, and high BMI. Interpretation Low back pain remains the leading cause of YLDs globally, and in 2020, there were more than half a billion prevalent cases of low back pain worldwide. While age-standardised rates have decreased modestly over the past three decades, it is projected that globally in 2050, more than 800 million people will have low back pain. Challenges persist in obtaining primary country-level data on low back pain, and there is an urgent need for more high-quality, primary, country-level data on both prevalence and severity distributions to improve accuracy and monitor change. Funding Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright (c) 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.