Significant changes in the global energy-system can be expected in the near future or are already on its way - for two reasons:
1) The need for policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in order to combat climate change
2) Reduced availability and increasing costs of fossil primary energy sources, most importantly of oil and gas due to declining conventional sources and geopolitical conflicts.

Historic Analysis – Economic History
We believe there is much to learn from history, in terms of how such transitions could be implemented, or which could be the right septs towards it:
(1) What can we learn from past global economic crises, with respect to an energy transition?
(2) Which of these crises seemed triggered by supply irregularities of energy resources and to what extent?
(3) Which economies did comparatively better during these times and why?
(4) What role did markets, technology and innovation play?
(5) Which economic sectors suffered more than others?
(6) What were the effects on employment?

Benchmarking: time series at the Inter- and Intra-national level
More lessons can potentially be learnt by comparing different national economies with each other and over time:
(1) Have some specific economies become more or less vulnerable over time in the case of energy supply irregularities?
(2) Are some economies more resilient than others under such circumstances?
(3) Which specific properties can be identified as good coping strategies for transition periods?
(4) What roles do markets, technology and innovation play?

Sector-level Analysis
Moreover at the national level and from a macro-structural and systemic point of view it is also not clear:
(1) How to translate transition policies to the sector level of economies?
(2) Which sectors are key elements in the transition towards a low or post-carbon economy? Where should we start?
(3) Which economic sectors are particularly vulnerable in the course of such a transition?
(4) What are the potential effects on employment?

Integration, Visualization and Synthesizing
Finally, having received and generated responses to the above questions it remains to be investigated:
(1) How can diverse economic information about successful coping strategies in the face of energy supply irregularities be meaningfully integrated and visualized?
(2) Which innovative tools and methods are available for such an endeavour?

Publications